DATA SNAPSHOT: Valuations shock and thaw

A comparison of polls on Q1 valuations expectations shows market players' angst cooled significantly as summer rolled in.

In the early days of the covid-19 crisis, expectations of Q1 valuations declines were very dire. But a comparison of polls taken from respondents over time shows that the initial shock gave way to more manageable expectations.

The below data was compiled by PEF Services. The March 31 poll was conducted by Duff & Phelps, while the subsequent polls were taken by PEF Services in conjunction with the Financial Executives Alliance (April 13), ACA Compliance (April 23) and the Institutional Limited Partners Association (June 3).

The earliest poll, which Duff & Phelps took on March 31, shows most respondents thought valuations would be down anywhere from 11 percent to more than 20 percent from end of year 2019.

The most recent poll, from PEF and ILPA, shows that market participants’ angst cooled as spring rolled into summer. Respondents mostly thought partners’ capital account statements (PCAPs) or net-asset values for Q1 would be down 6 percent to 15 percent on June 3.

That poll was taken after ILPA had received the majority of its Q1 reports, said PEF Services CEO and president Anne Anquillare in a recent webcast produced in association with the Small Business Investor Alliance.